In scenes reminiscent of reality television, last weekend's presidential elections in Nigeria resulted in a veritable cliffhanger as the nation awaited the final vote tally. On Sunday, the media director of the ruling party's campaign support organisation tried to gain the upper hand by announcing, illegally and untruthfully, that the incumbent Peoples' Democratic Party (PDP) had won in 23 states. As partial results were announced on Monday, one media house trumpeted that incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan was ahead on votes, while another blared that his opponent, former military ruler Muhammadu Buhari, had won more states. Given Nigeria's complex electoral system (where, in addition to winning an outright majority of votes, a candidate must also poll 25 percent of the vote in two-thirds of the country's
36 states, as well as in the federal capital territory of Abuja), most analysts maintained that this election was too close to call until most of the results were validated. Buhari ahead in tight Nigeria poll count But as more results trickled in on Tuesday, it appeared that Buhari's All Progressives Congress (APC) was inching ahead, lending credence to the Nigerian electorate's appetite for change.
Jonathan's administration has been heavily criticised for rampant corruption, a weak economic base, and its failure to rein in the Boko Haram insurgency in the northeast, where militants have killed thousands and abducted hundreds with impunity.
Largely free and fair Election observers declared the poll to be largely free and fair, praising the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) for a well-managed election, despite several delays, some technical glitches and sporadic violence, including the torching of INEC's offices in oil-rich Rivers State. But according to Nigeria's Transition Monitoring Group, which had positioned observers throughout the country, "These issues did not systematically disadvantage any candidate or party." By mid-afternoon on Tuesday, it was evident that even if Jonathan could replicate his 2011 landslides in the PDP's southern and southeastern strongholds, Buhari had built a strong enough lead for an overall win, especially given his victories in the country's three most populous states, Kano, Lagos, and Kaduna. So the big question then was whether he could meet the 25 percent constitutional requirement in order to avoid a run off vote. By Tuesday evening, Buhari had proven conclusively that he could.
Most surprising was the lower-than-expected turnout in the PDP's traditional strongholds, and the swings towards the APC even in Jonathan's heartland. It appears that, in an unprecedented move, many Nigerians have shifted their voting patterns away from former tribal, religious and regional alliances. This may well be the first Nigerian election where issues trump allegiances.“ Many remember Buhari's 20-month rule in the mid-1980s, as a time when hundreds of corrupt politicians, businessmen and officials were convicted of and jailed for graft.
Buhari's win marks a milestone for Nigeria; it is the first time an incumbent has been democratically beaten through the ballot box. Still, legal challenges can be expected in some areas, as well some degree of post-election violence in tense areas such as Rivers State, where rebels who had negotiated a lucrative peace deal with Jonathan's administration, had threatened havoc in the event of a Buhari win.
Jonathan won a massive 95 percent of the vote in Rivers State, and the state governor imposed a curfew from Monday in a bid to maintain stability.
Track record Meanwhile, the PDP's appeal to INEC to cancel the results from several of the states
won by Buhari may reflect some PDP insiders' fear of Buhari, who has a track-record of indicting and imprisoning corrupt predecessors.
Though recently tainted by allegations that he has acquired a farm worth about $500m through questionable means, Jonathan personally has much to gain from a graceful acceptance of defeat, which would make him a favourite contender for the substantial Mo Ibrahim Award. His legacy will include the transformation of INEC into an independent and transparent body, among other institutional advances. But several of his PDP cronies, whom Jonathan declined to investigate on various corruption related charges, may have good reason to thwart a Buhari victory. During his campaign, Buhari promised that "anyone who steals Nigeria's money will end up in Kirikiri Maximum Prisons. We are going to make sure that Nigeria's wealth belongs only to Nigerians". This has resonated with citizens who are frustrated by the
endemic graft in both the public and private sectors. Many remember Buhari's 20-month rule in the mid-1980s, as a time when hundreds of corrupt politicians, businessmen and officials were convicted of and jailed for graft. Thus, Buhari's victory could prove to be very unwelcome for the many "big shots" implicated in corruption and fraud scandals during recent years. An APC administration may well choose to investigate and prosecute cases that the PDP government preferred to overlook or withdraw. A supporter of Muhammadu Buhari riding on a motorcycle [AP] Well-publicised honesty While Buhari's promoters laud his well-publicised honesty, his detractors point to his poor human rights record, his support for Islamic law in the Muslim-majority north of the
country and his leanings towards military dictatorship. Indeed, civil rights such as freedom of expression and freedom of the press deteriorated under Buhari's previous rule, and his economic management was also widely criticised as it heralded inflationary increases. But he appears to have learnt from his mistakes and has projected moderate social democrat views during this presidential bid, declaring that he will diversify the country's economic base away from its dependence on oil, and vowing to create three million jobs for unemployed youths. His closeness to the military may also facilitate an easier path for dealing with Boko Haram, both at the national and regional levels.
Whether Buhari's administration can deliver on his promises remains to be seen. If the 2015 election has proven anything, it is that the Nigerian electorate has come of age, determined to be heard and to hold its leaders accountable to the citizenry. In the final analysis, Buhari will have to put his money where his mouth is in order to retain the
presidency beyond 2019. Nigeria's next president: Muhammadu Buhari beats
Goodluck Jonathan.
By Christian Purefoy and Holly Yan, CNN
Updated 0804 GMT (1504 HKT) April 1, 2015
APC Party: Nigerian Pres. Jonathan has conceded!
Story highlights
Buhari, 72, is a retired major general who ruled Nigeria between 1983 and 1985.
Nigeria
Opposition candidate Muhammadu Buhari has won Nigeria's presidential election, the country's Independent National Electoral Commission said. Buhari, a retired major general, defeated incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan by about 2 million votes. Earlier, Jonathan phoned Buhari on Tuesday to concede defeat. The outgoing president also issued a written
statement to his nation.
"I thank all Nigerians once again for the great opportunity I
was given to lead this country, and assure you that I will continue to do my best at the helm of national affairs until
the end of my tenure," Jonathan said. Advertisement "I promised the country free and fair elections. I have kept my word."
Buhari, 72, takes the helm at a critical time, as Nigeria grapples with the violent militant group Boko Haram.
A LEADER AGAIN!
This isn't Buhari's first time leading Nigeria -- but it's his first
time in nearly 30 years.
Who is Nigerian President-elect Muhammadu Buhari? A military coup brought Buhari to power in late 1983, closing a brief period of popular rule by Shehu Shagari. But Buhari himself was ousted by another military coup in August 1985.
Who is Nigeria's Muhammadu Buhari?
His presidential win comes after four attempts at leadership since he was kicked out of power in 1985. Buhari campaigned as a born-again democrat to allay fears about his strict military regime, while stressing that Nigeria's security needs to be the next government's focus. His campaign was also fiercely anti-corruption. He ran under the slogan of "new broom," and his supporters were often pictured holding brooms in the lead-up to the vote.
Despite years of democracy in Nigeria, corruption has been a hindrance to building a stable economy, analysts say. Facing extremists Boko Haram has been terrorizing Nigeria as it tries to institute a strict version of Sharia, or Islamic, law. In the past few years, the group has bombed both churches and mosques, killed hundreds of people and kidnapped over 200 teenage girls from a boarding school. Even the presidential vote had to be postponed due to the terror group.
The election was originally scheduled for February 14 but was delayed for six weeks because the military needed more time to secure areas controlled by Boko Haram.
Yet the violence persisted. On Saturday, residents in the northeastern state of Gombe said at least 11 people were killed in attacks at polling stations, apparently by Boko Haram extremists. Jonathan had been criticized for not doing enough to combat Boko Haram. Documentary filmmaker and African affairs analyst Ayo Johnson said earlier this month that the election would come down to who could make Nigeria feel safe. "Many Nigerians will not forget (Buhari) was a military
leader during a dictatorship," Johnson said. "Or maybe they
will feel that they need a military leader to address fundamental problems such as terrorism." Buhari is a Sunni Muslim from Nigeria's poorer North, while Jonathan hails from a Christian and animist South that is rich with oil.
A SPATE OF CHALLENGES
Boko Haram isn't the only obstacle facing the new president, the economy is another major issue.
Nigeria overtook South Africa last year as the region's largest
economy. But many complain that the country's vast wealth from oil exports does not trickle down to the average citizen.
As many as 70% of Nigerians live below the poverty line and
live on less than a dollar a day.
AIGNC-Alutrot Interpersonal and Global Network Centre.
